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The United Kingdom has conducted a risk assessment on the likelihood of incursion of African swine fever (ASF) to Great Britain from European Union Member States through human-mediated routes.
This assessment concluded that there is a medium overall annual likelihood of entry with high uncertainty. The individual route of personal imports of products of animal origin was considered the highest risk pathway with a medium likelihood of occurring. The risk through commercial trade in live animals and their products, as well as illegal imports of live animals, animal feed, bedding, and crops, was considered to be very low. Vehicle and passenger transporting fomites were concluded to be low risk, and the risk of introduction by vectors was considered negligible.
The annual likelihood of exposure of a susceptible animal in Great Britain was considered low with medium uncertainty. While there is no trade in live animals from ASF-affected countries, the possibility remains that animals from newly infected areas where the disease has not yet been detected could be imported.
The size of the impact of an ASF incursion in Great Britain is difficult to quantify and would depend on the outbreak size and duration. Given the welfare, trade, social, and economic impacts of an incursion, the consequence is considered to be major
January 20, 2026/ UK Government/ United Kingdom.
https://www.gov.uk
